13:32 United Methodists are breaking up in a slow-motion schism AP News 13:36 Poland tells its citizens to flee Belarus NOW as Putin blitzes Ukraine Daily Mail Online 13:46 Black Holes May Hide a Mind-Bending Secret About Our Universe 13:50 Ye reveals hypocritical desperation of conservatives Washington Examiner 13:58 Hospitals brace for unprecedented winter. 14:20 Ryan \'all by lonesome\' as national party ignores close Ohio race. 14:30 LA City Council President Nury Martinez resigns and posts apology after leak of racist audio Daily Mail Online 14:34 Kadyrov Delivers Birthday Message to Putin After Week of Criticism 14:34 Russias Putin makes Chechnyas Kadyrov an army general Al Arabiya English 14:34 Vladimir Putin is weakened and his opponents are preparing to strike 14:40 Trump lawyer told to certify Mar-a-Lago document search she did not conduct Donald Trump The Guardian 14:48 Arrested CNN Crew Apologise on Video for Filming in Massacre Crime Scene 14:56 'We Haven't Started Yet,' Putin Says in Hawkish Speech on Ukraine Invasion - Europe. 14:56 Elon Musk Sends Dire Warning About Russia-Ukraine War 14:56 Biden Condemns Utter Brutality of Russian Strikes on Civilians 14:56 MoA - Russia, Having 'Run Out Of Missiles', Launches Barrage On Ukraine 14:56 Russians React to Attacks in Ukraine 15:02 Woman Scammed by Russian Astronaut Who Claimed to Need Money to Return to Earth 15:07 Why Zelenskys World War III gambit will fail 15:18 Fedsurrection narrative crumbles: Darren Beattie on the DNC pipe bomber's impossible story. 15:20 The return of Aztec floating farms - BBC Travel Sean Casten reveals healthy teenage daughter died from cardiac arrhythmia Daily Mail Online 15:30 Jennifer Siebel Newsom, California Governor's Wife, to Testify as Accuser in Harvey Weinstein's Sexual Assault Trial 15:40 Earthquake shakes Taiwan's capital Taipei Reuters 15:52 Police warn Oregon beachgoers about grenades washing ashore US news The Guardian 15:56 Underground microbes may have swarmed ancient Mars AP News 16:06 Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses 16:24 Kanye West seen with mystery woman amid supposed mental break 16:26 AI app could diagnose illnesses based on speech : NPR 16:35 The American Way? courtesy of Crooked Hillary 16:36 Cyberattacks force over a dozen US airport websites offline US news The Guardian 16:46 NFL News: Tom Brady set to add former Super Bowl champion to the Buccaneers 16:46 Proud Boys leader pleads guilty to seditious conspiracy over Jan. 16:50 UPDATE 1-Earthquake rattles Taiwan, but epicentre out at sea Trial: California Governors Wife To Testify Over Alleged 2005 Rape Deadline 16:56 THIS is how to close a PayPal personal or business account 16:56 A New Documentary Gives Us a Glimpse Into the Lincoln Projects Hypocrisy - POLITICO 16:56 Uvalde school district suspends entire police force after fallout from shooting massacre which left 21 dead The US Sun 17:28 Jewish women sue over Kentucky abortion laws, citing religious freedom 17:32 Strikes hit German diplomatic office. 17:48 Spread of Catholic hospitals limits reproductive care across the U.S. We use a bayesian exploded logit model, which is fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan.17:54 Home prices are falling fastest in these 10 US cities, data shows It uses population density, % born in the UK, % agriculture, % gross income median. Focaldata's MRP model uses age, gender, working status, VoteGE2017, VoteEuRef, Religion as individual-level predictors in the model. This technique of “multilevel regression and post-stratification” or MRP is the same approach we used by Focaldata to predict Vote Intention in Westminster constituencies. While this does not yield enough observations in individual constituencies to treat the data as separate constituency polls, we can look for patterns in responses across constituencies that have similar characteristics, and then work out the implications of those patterns for each constituency. Focaldata specialises in mapping opinion poll data onto smaller geographic areas, using a technique known as MRP, or Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification.įor this study we collected data from 21,119 respondents between 15th January and 4th November 2019 using an online panel provider.
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